Football is predictably unpredictable: the element of surprise is a major factor in the game's enduring and unique popularity around the world. The difference between victory and defeat is often a single moment, perhaps a flash of genius, or plain and simple luck. Time and again, one is reminded of the fine line between triumph and disaster. This lack of predictability in turn unleashes the emotional roller-coaster ridden by all followers of the world's favourite game.

That is not to say, however, that it is impossible to plan for success in football, or that clubs with replete trophy cabinets are just the beneficiaries of abundant good luck. Firstly, most people within the the game will tell you the swings in fortune cancel each other out in the course of a season. And secondly, success over the long-term requires some sort of insurance against the whims of Lady Luck. Intriguingly, clubs are increasingly choosing continuity to provide that insurance.

Ferguson, Wenger the ultimate symbols
"There are frequent changes of coach [but] there is no evidence to suggest that continual changing of coaches brings success. Coaches such as Fabio [Capello], Marcello [Lippi], Arsene [Wenger] and myself suggest the opposite, that longevity can bring success," Sir Alex Ferguson told UEFA's The Technician coaching newsletter in the autumn of 2006. The 66-year-old Scot speaks with the authority of 21 seasons at the helm of Manchester United, arguably the world's biggest club, where he has become almost a synonym for enduring success.

Ferguson has discovered there is nothing more satisfying in football than occupying a place at or near the top of the pile, season after season. Obviously, there are no guarantees, but expectations breed desire, and that means bigger budgets. The likes of financial institutions or airlines contemplating a move into sponsorship are always cautious in choosing image-building vehicles, as the potential partner must be able to demonstrate attributes such as consistency, reliability and the aura of success, values of immense importance to businesses of this calibre.

Profiting from dynamism and image
It is no accident that leading companies from these commercial sectors parade their logos on the shirts worn by Manchester United, Arsenal and north German giants Werder Bremen. All three clubs boast exemplary track records in terms of continuity, especially in the area of sporting management. Renowned French coach Wenger has been at the helm in north London for eleven seasons, while general manager Klaus Allofs and coach Thomas Schaaf took the reins in Bremen back in 1999, continuing a tradition established during Otto Rehhagel's 14-year tenure as Werder coach.

The benefits accruing to these three clubs from standing by the same leading individuals through thick and thin are obvious for all to see. Ferguson and Wenger's brand of football has become institutionalised at their clubs, and Schaaf's Werder long ago became the club most often mentioned when it comes to attractive attacking football in the Bundesliga. Maintaining the faith despite the vagaries of fortune not only makes good budgetary sense, sparing clubs a raft of often monumental pay-offs, but can also result in the creation of an attractive and valuable sporting profile.

'Money isn't enough'
The many spin-off benefits include an increasingly loyal fan base, as supporters naturally gravitate towards and identify with familiar faces. Players come and go with bewildering regularity, so it is good to know and understand the personalities seated at the touchline. "Money on its own isn't enough," insists Allofs, highly conscious of the need for presentational consistency paired with internal unity as tools to win admirers from all sides, and underpin a drive for a permanent place at the top table of European clubs.

In any case, the effect of installing a new coach is usually transitory. A handful of reasons are conventionally trotted out for switching coaches in response to a series of poor results: a different motivational style, a change of tactics and the need for potentially jaded players to prove themselves all over again. And indeed, results may briefly pick up and the media pack may lay off for a while, but in most cases a given squad of players will slowly but assuredly return to their previous levels and standards, leaving precious little room for new conceptual thinking.

Grooming new talent is often a frequent casualty of such a move, a disaster for continuity at any club. A newly-installed coach has little option but to chase results with experienced players in a bid to justify his appointment in the first place, a vicious circle if ever there was one.

French lessons
France provides two shining examples of coaches whose long-term and consistent thinking has led to sustained success. "My players have taken to heart certain tactical fundamentals and a defined playing style," coach Claude Puel told FIFA.com in autumn 2006. "The result is that everyone knows fairly precisely what he has to do once he's out on the field. We've thus managed to concentrate our resources pretty evenly, which is only possible with dogged perseverance. We all pull together these days." The 46-year-old arrived at OSC Lille in summer 2002, and has repaid the board's faith by leading his men into the UEFA Champions League.

The most astounding record of them all belongs to Guy Roux. With just the occasional break, the 69-year-old coached AJ Auxerre from 1961 to 2005, guiding them from the murky depths of Burgundian amateur football to the heights of the French top flight, leaving them firmly established as a leading club. The 44-year tenure is surely destined to survive as an all-time record.

Will the trend last?
Former world-class players Carlo Ancelotti and Frank Rijkaard are among those who have characterised an era at a leading club thanks to unconditional support from the powers that be. Since taking over in late autumn 2001, the Italian has led reigning FIFA Club World champions AC Milan to renewed domestic and European glory, while the Dutchman has collected an impressive trophy haul since starting his current job at Barcelona in 2003. The two star coaches were, of course, harvesting from fertile ground, as the mega-successful north Italian and Catalan clubs have long pursued carefully conceived and lovingly-nurtured policy rules.

However, after Milan's last 16 exit from Europe's elite competition on Tuesday night, it is a moot point whether Ancelotti will be entrusted with the potentially thorny and certainly time-consuming job of overhauling a squad which appears decidedly long in the tooth. Will the apparent trend for long-term loyalty and commitment to a coach survive the cloud of despondency surrounding AC at the present time?

Balancing the head and the heart
The clubs of south and central America, where patience and coach-durability tend to be less prevalent, will undoubtedly be watching developments with interest. Mexican outfit Nexaca rate as a beacon of consistency in a generally turbulent environment; Manuel Lapuente holding the reins from 1991 to 1996, before his assistant, Raul Arias, stepped up to the top job and held it until 2004.

For as long as the game continues to stir the emotions, gut reactions will always be part and parcel of the footballing landscape, and that will inevitably include spur-of-the-moment changes of coach. Nevertheless, loyalty and continuity through thick and thin, where boards show the courage to ride above the vagaries of time and tide, appear increasingly viable and successful options.